What Is the Accumulation Index?
The Accumulation Index is HalvingLens' 0-to-100 summary of how historically stretched or depressed Bitcoin's price is. It blends three price-based inputs — the Mayer Multiple (price versus its 200-day average, weighted 45%), the 200-week moving-average multiple (30%), and the drawdown from the running all-time high (25%) — through fixed, published maps. Low scores describe conditions that historically clustered near cycle lows; high scores, conditions that clustered near cycle highs. It describes where today sits in the historical distribution. It is not a buy or sell signal, and it makes no prediction.
Bitcoin is 0.88× its 200-day average and 0.99× its 200-week average, 49% below its running all-time high. On the HalvingLens Accumulation Score that reads 21/100 — historically attractive. Conditions sit in the lower, historically calmer part of Bitcoin's range — below the levels that have marked past cycle peaks. The live module below shows the current score, its band, and how much each input contributes today.
What history tells us
How the score is built
All three inputs come from price history — not sentiment surveys or social activity. Their mappings, weights and band thresholds are fixed, published and applied consistently rather than adjusted in response to current market conditions. The same published rules are applied at every point in the record, and the score is computed using only information observable at that date. Where an input did not yet exist — notably the 200-week average early in Bitcoin's history — the available weights are renormalised and the reduced-input period is disclosed. Historical readings are never recalculated using future information.
What the bands describe
The score is divided into five named bands, from Historically Deep Value to Historically Overheated. The names are descriptions of where a reading sits in the historical distribution — not instructions. The full band history, and how long past spells in the extreme bands lasted, is charted on the Accumulation Index page.
What it is for
The index answers one question precisely: compared with every moment in the record, how stretched is price right now? It deliberately does not answer what happens next — no single score has reliably done that, and this one does not claim to.
Today's dataLive · updated 2026-08-01
Historically, conditions similar to today have produced stronger long-term outcomes than average. Historical context — not a prediction or advice.
Things to watch
Related questions
Bitcoin stays in one of its cheapest historical valuation regions even as ETF flows turn negative.
By the historical record, Bitcoin is cheaper than 79% of all weeks it has ever traded — a combination the record shows only a handful of times.
Closest past moment: Jun 2022 (86% match). Today most closely resembles Jun 2022. The resemblance isn't the date — it's the setup: a similar position in the cycle, a comparable drawdown from the high, and a attractive valuation backdrop. What followed then is context, not a forecast.
- Divergence from historical cycle timingDiverging — later by time, cooler by price than prior cycles
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Historical context, not a prediction. · Editorially reviewed 2026-08-01.
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