Has Bitcoin Peaked?

In the 2012 cycle the highest close came 371 days after the halving; in 2016, 525 days. In the 2020 cycle the November 2021 high came about 18 months after the halving — though that cycle's single highest close actually came later, in March 2024, weeks before the next halving. Each completed bull-market peak was followed by a decline of 85% (from December 2013, over 406 days), 84% (from December 2017, over 364 days) and 77% (from November 2021, over 366 days) to the following low. The deepest falls reach further still early in the record: The deepest fall in the record is 93%, reached in November 2011.

In every completed cycle, price fell at least 35% from a cycle high and later made a new high within the same cycle — including a 71% fall into July 2013 that preceded a new cycle high five months later, and a 53% fall in mid-2021 that preceded the November 2021 high. In real time, those falls could not be distinguished reliably from the beginning of a longer decline. Some declines of similar depth did mark the beginning of a prolonged bear market; others did not. Depth alone has therefore been insufficient to identify a final cycle peak. Three completed cycles is a very small sample — far too small to treat any of these patterns as a law.

Across the full record, only about 4.3% of all 5,858 days set a new all-time high. Statistically, almost every day in Bitcoin's history — including days inside its strongest advances — has been “below a previous peak”.