Bitcoin cycles, in plain English.
Every term we use across the site, defined for a normal person — no trading jargon, no hype. If something on a chart isn't clear, it should be here.
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We only show numbers we can stand behind, and we label exactly how fresh each one is. You'll see one of these badges next to the data:
Real data, fetched from a live source on each daily sync.
Calculated from live Bitcoin price (e.g. moving-average ratios) — real, not modelled.
Not shown yet — no live source connected. We don't display estimated numbers as if they were real.
Cycle basics
- Halving
- Roughly every four years (every 210,000 blocks), the reward miners earn per block is cut in half. It paces Bitcoin's new supply and, historically, its price cycles.
- Halving cycle
- The ~4-year window from one halving to the next. We number them — cycle 5 began at the April 2024 halving.
- Day in cycle
- How many days it has been since the last halving. It's the yardstick we use to line cycles up and compare them fairly.
- Cycle top (bull peak)
- The highest price during a cycle's bull market. In the last three cycles it landed roughly 12–18 months after the halving.
- Cycle bottom (bear low)
- The lowest price after the top — the bear-market floor. Historically about 2–2.5 years after the halving.
- Drawdown
- How far price has fallen from its peak, as a percentage. A −80% drawdown means price sits 80% below its high.
- Diminishing returns
- Each cycle's percentage gain has so far been smaller than the one before. It's an observed pattern, not a law.
The metrics
The signals behind the cycle. Tap any to open its full page.
Standardised difference between market cap and realised cap. Reads how far Bitcoin trades above or below the aggregate cost basis of every coin.
Net Unrealised Profit/Loss. Share of the network's market cap currently held in profit vs. loss — a thermometer for collective greed and fear.
Spot price divided by the 200-day moving average. The simplest cycle gauge — coined by Trace Mayer.
Daily USD value of miner issuance divided by its 365-day MA. Reads miner revenue pressure relative to recent history.
Balances long-term holder confidence (HODL conviction) against the cost of acquiring Bitcoin today. Low = asymmetric reward.
Where price sits relative to the long-term power-law trend. Bands run from 'Fire sale' to 'Maximum bubble territory'.
Spent Output Profit Ratio. The aggregate ratio between sell price and acquisition cost of every coin moved on-chain. >1 means the network is realising profit; <1 means realising loss.
The aggregate cost-basis of every coin in circulation. Spot price minus realised price tells you whether the network is in profit or in loss on average.
Ratio of 1-week realised value to 1–2-year realised value, multiplied by network age. Reads the imbalance between fresh hands and seasoned holders.
Sentiment & structure
- Fear & Greed Index
- A 0–100 gauge of market mood built from volatility, momentum, volume and social signals. Low = fear, high = greed. Most useful at the extremes.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF
- A fund that holds real Bitcoin, letting regulated investors get exposure through a normal brokerage. US spot ETFs launched in 2024 — a source of demand that didn't exist in earlier cycles.
- ETF flows
- The net money moving into or out of those ETFs each day — a read on institutional demand.
- Realised price
- The average price at which all coins last moved — an aggregate 'cost basis' for the whole market.
- Issuance & inflation
- New BTC minted per block. Each halving cuts the rate in half, so Bitcoin's annual inflation keeps falling toward zero (capped at 21M coins).
One honest caveat
Everything here is historical context and education — not financial advice, and not a forecast. Bitcoin has only had a handful of cycles, the sample is tiny, and the ETF era may well break the old patterns. We show you the rhythm of the past so you can think clearly about the present.