Bitcoin by Cycle Month
The four halving cycles side by side, aligned by months since each halving — as monthly returns, or as the market's distance from each reference price. This is a comparison of what each cycle actually did, not a seasonal pattern: in the months all three completed cycles observed in full, they moved in the same direction in only 12 of 43. Historical context, not a prediction.
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Solid cells are complete anchored months. A thin dashed border marks a completed cycle's partial final month (cut short by the next halving); a thicker dashed accent border marks the current cycle's month to date. Faint cells are months a series doesn't observe; blank cells fall outside a cycle's span. Monthly change of Market Price, by months since halving.
The current cycle is in month 27 — day 833 since the 2024 halving. Its running month renders month-to-date and joins the record only when complete. The next halving is due around April 2028 (projected) — a label for context, never a cell in the grid.
In all 3 completed cycles, month 4 rose (+44.3% in the 2012 cycle, +7.8% in 2016, +9.4% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 8 rose (+33.6% in the 2012 cycle, +2.8% in 2016, +17.6% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 9 rose (+7.5% in the 2012 cycle, +42.3% in 2016, +24.5% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 10 rose (+53.7% in the 2012 cycle, +66.3% in 2016, +6.3% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 24 fell (-14.5% in the 2012 cycle, -6.5% in 2016, -6.2% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 25 fell (-16.2% in the 2012 cycle, -1.3% in 2016, -28.3% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 27 fell (-3% in the 2012 cycle, -3% in 2016, -9.2% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 28 fell (-8.1% in the 2012 cycle, -46.8% in 2016, -11.8% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 31 rose (+17.1% in the 2012 cycle, +6.3% in 2016, +1.8% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 34 rose (+26.7% in the 2012 cycle, +33.9% in 2016, +46.7% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 41 rose (+5.9% in the 2012 cycle, +7% in 2016, +36.3% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
In all 3 completed cycles, month 42 rose (+38.2% in the 2012 cycle, +23% in 2016, +17% in 2020).
n = 3 completed cycles · complete anchored months only
A month qualifies only when every completed cycle observed it in full and every one moved strictly the same way — a movement that would round to 0.0% blocks the claim. In the other 31 comparable months, the cycles disagreed.
1,319 days halving to halving · 43 complete months + a partial final month (43).
References: 200-Day Average from month 0 · Realised Price not observed · Est. Mining Cost from month 37.
1,402 days halving to halving · 46 complete months + a partial final month (46).
References: 200-Day Average from month 0 · Realised Price not observed · Est. Mining Cost from month 0.
1,439 days halving to halving · 47 complete months + a partial final month (47).
References: 200-Day Average from month 0 · Realised Price from month 26 · Est. Mining Cost from month 0.
833 days since the halving · 27 complete months + month 27 to date.
References: 200-Day Average from month 0 · Realised Price from month 0 · Est. Mining Cost from month 0.
Months are anchored at each halving date; a month's value compares the last daily close before each anchored boundary. The 2012 cycle's Est. Mining Cost coverage begins at month 37 — the model window opens in January 2016, inside that cycle's final six months. The grid ends at month 47, the furthest the observed record reaches (the current cycle has reached month 27). Historical context, not a prediction.
Continue your journey
You've compared the cycles month by month. How do those same cycles look as continuous paths, day by day?