Estimated Mining Cost
A modelled estimate of the average electricity cost required to produce one new Bitcoin using current network conditions and documented assumptions. Mining costs vary significantly between operators — this is a network-level estimate, not the actual cost faced by every miner.
What it's telling us today
Near estimated mining cost. Market Price is +10% above the central estimate — modelled average mining margins are compressed; individual operators' economics vary widely. Historical context, not a prediction.
Why this matters
- Miners are structural sellers — they have ongoing operating expenses to cover, so mining economics shape a steady flow of potential sell pressure.
- Mining margins can affect miner behaviour and network conditions across the cycle.
- Periods with Market Price below the estimated mining cost have historically placed pressure on less efficient operators.
- Historically, Bitcoin has often traded near this level during periods of miner stress, but this estimate should not be interpreted as a guaranteed support level or price floor — price has traded below the modelled cost for extended periods.
- Network difficulty adjusts roughly every two weeks, and miners use very different hardware and energy prices — the modelled average moves with the network.
Methodology & assumptions — HalvingLens electricity-cost model v1 (2026-07)Expand
Formula. Daily network energy = hashrate (TH/s) × fleet efficiency (J/TH) × 86,400s. Cost per Bitcoin = (energy in kWh × electricity price) ÷ Bitcoin issued that day (block subsidy × 144 blocks; transaction fees are excluded from the denominator, which makes the estimate conservative).
Observed inputs. Network hashrate history (CoinMetrics community data) and the block-subsidy schedule. No price data enters the cost calculation.
Assumptions (versioned, v1 (2026-07)). Fleet efficiency is a stepped, network-weighted curve from 250 J/TH in 2016 to 21 J/TH in 2026, referenced to Cambridge CBECI efficiency assumptions and public miner-fleet disclosures. Electricity is priced at $0.06/kWh (central) within a $0.04–$0.08/kWh band — the shaded range on the chart.
Excluded costs. Hardware purchase and depreciation, cooling overhead, labour, pool fees, financing and taxes. Real all-in costs are therefore higher than this electricity-only estimate.
Coverage & refresh. Modelled from 2016 (earlier fleet composition is too uncertain to defend); refreshed with the daily data sync. If the hashrate observation behind the model is more than 7 days old, the estimate is withheld rather than shown stale.
Limitations. A network-level modelled estimate, not any miner's break-even; not a guaranteed support level or price floor; not intrinsic value; not a prediction. See the methodology page for how modelled metrics are labelled across HalvingLens.