Reserve Risk
Balances long-term holder confidence (HODL conviction) against the cost of acquiring Bitcoin today. Low = asymmetric reward.
Cycle 5 · with zones
Current cycle since the 2024 halving — use the range buttons to zoom in.
halvinglens.com · rr
Current reading
0.0006ratio
Asymmetric
Generational buy ·Asymmetric· Top zone
What it's telling us today
RR currently reads 0.0006 — Asymmetric. Historically an accumulation range, where longer-term value has tended to build.
Why this matters
Low reserve risk means strong-hand conviction is high relative to price — historically an attractive, asymmetric entry. It climbs as price runs hot and long-term holders are tempted to sell.
Zones
- Generational buy— → 0.0006
- Asymmetric0.0006 → 0.0009
- Fair0.0009 → 0.0013
- Stretched0.0013 → 0.0018
- Top zone0.0018 → —
Cross-cycle view coming
This is a live on-chain metric, but our current free data source only reaches back about four years — so we show it for the current cycle only rather than drawing a 4-cycle comparison from data we don't have. Price-based metrics (Mayer, Puell, Rainbow) keep the full multi-cycle overlay.